What is Africa?
Africa
Africa is the second-largest and second-most-populous continent, comprising 54 recognized sovereign states and a population of about 1.4 billion people. Discussions around Africa in 2025–2026 span its role in critical mineral supply chains, battery repurposing, debt burdens, geopolitical engagement, and energy transitions.
How it developed
- May 2025 - Bill Bishop observed that China’s investment in forums like the China-Africa FOCAC, built over 20-30 years, now moves the geopolitical needle as those countries are talking about it.
- May 2026 - Tzeporah Berman noted that in 2025, African economies spent as much as 16% of their export earnings on servicing debt.
- May 2026 - Katie Auth said concerns about the future of coal in Africa are “really overblown.”
- May 2026 - Professor Jiang expressed concern about millions of refugees from Africa and other regions flooding into societies due to hunger.
- Jun 2026 - Zeno said that batteries with 15-20% degradation can serve another 5-7 years as power walls for middle-class Indian or African homes.
- Aug 2026 - Tracy Alloway noted that ionic absorption clays are being found in tropical Africa, among other places.
In the evidence
Every line below is attributed to a named speaker.
Ionic absorption clay deposits for rare earths, previously thought unique to southern China, are now being found in Brazil, Malaysia, Australia, and tropical Africa, opening new supply vectors worth tracking.
“Believe it or not, all these ionic absorption clays are starting to turn up in other places. They're starting to find them in Brazil, They're starting to find them in Malaysia. Peple are starting to find them here in Australia and across parts of tropical Africa as well.”Tracy Alloway · 3 Aug 2026
Zeno explains the battery second-life model: after 15 to 20% state-of-health degradation in mobility use, packs serve another 5 to 7 years as home power walls for middle-class households in India and Africa.
“When a battery no longer works in the mobility application, when we've seen 15 or 20% degradation in state of health, that battery can then go and serve another 5 to 7 years as a an effective power wall for a middle-class Indian or African home.”Zeno · 23 Jun 2026
In 2025, African economies spent as much as 16% of their export earnings on debt servicing.
“In twenty five, African economies spent as much as sixteen percent of their export in earnings on servicing debt.”Tzeporah Berman · 28 May 2026
China-ASEAN and China-Africa forums that analysts dismissed as geopolitically irrelevant a decade ago now genuinely move the needle as countries are forced to choose sides.
“10 years ago I kind of saw these China ASEAN meetings ch the China Africa focideshow that really didn't move the geopolitically but China has invested in these forums and these relationships for you know 20 30 years and now consistent too consistent and now they do move the needle because those countries are talking about which side of this are we going to be on?”Bill Bishop · 30 May 2025
Fears about large-scale future coal expansion in Africa are overstated, according to Auth.
“I think there are really overblown, actually, concerns about the future of coal in Africa in particular.”Katie Auth · 26 May 2026
Professor Jiang argues that future civilizational risk is not war itself but mass hunger-driven refugee migration from Africa, the Middle East, and South America, drawing an analogy to the Bronze Age collapse.
“Our concern will be these millions of refugees who want to flood into our societies because they're hungry and they're going to come from Africa. They're going to come from the Middle East. They'll probably come from South America as well.”Professor Jiang · 7 May 2026