What is copper?
copper
Copper is a critical mineral whose supply chain faces structural delays and inefficiencies, as highlighted by industry observers. Even when new deposits are found, it takes an average of 10 to 16 years to extract copper, and current heap leaching methods recover less than 50% of the metal, leaving the rest as a stranded asset with perpetual liabilities. Demand for copper is projected to double by 2035, intensifying concerns about supply adequacy.
How it developed
- May 2026 - Mike McGlone noted that copper, gold, and silver have never been more correlated with the stock market, needing equities to rise to gain.
- Jul 2026 - An unnamed speaker stated that new copper deposits take 10 to 16 years to bring into production, and that current heap leaching recovers less than 50% of the copper, with the remainder becoming a perpetual liability.
- Jul 2026 - An unnamed speaker projected that copper demand will double between now and 2035.
- Jul 2026 - Erik Townsend remarked that an extreme is a condition, not a signal, in the context of crowded trades.
- Aug 2026 - Tracy Alloway expressed concern that Project Vault could become a way to hedge price risk for common commodities like copper, nickel, and aluminum.
In the evidence
Every line below is attributed to a named speaker.
A newly discovered copper deposit takes 10 to 16 years on average to reach production.
“Even when we find a new deposit, it takes on average 10 to 16 years to get copper out of that.”<UNKNOWN> · 28 Jul 2026
Heap leach copper operations recover less than 50% of the copper in ore on average, leaving the remainder as a stranded asset with perpetual tailings liability.
“For context right now on average heaps get less than 50% of the copper out so 50% is just a stranded asset that you're in charge of the trailing liabilities for in perpetuity.”<UNKNOWN> · 28 Jul 2026
Tracy Alloway warns that Project Vault risks becoming a hedge on common commodities rather than a genuine strategic minerals reserve.
“I think the risk is that Project Vault becomes a way of hedging price risk for fairly common commodities like copper, like nickel, like aluminum, like metallurgical coal.”Tracy Alloway · 3 Aug 2026
Erik Townsend on the limits of extreme positioning as a trading signal.
“An extreme is a condition, not a signal.”Erik Townsend · 23 Jul 2026
Luke Gromen explains why a crowded positioning reading is a condition, not a sell signal: extreme positioning can resolve through time if physical buyers absorb paper supply rather than through price.
“Now most people see a reading like that and think crowded means sell but that's not how this works. An extreme is a condition not a signal because there are two ways a crowded trade resolves.”Luke Gromen · 23 Jul 2026
Extreme positioning is a condition rather than a signal because a crowded trade can resolve through time instead of price, as copper demonstrated, meaning crowdedness alone does not reliably time a reversal.
“An extreme is a condition, not a signal.”Erik Townsend · 23 Jul 2026
McGlone explains that metals (copper, gold, silver) are at a historically unprecedented level of correlation with equities, meaning they can only rise if the stock market rises, creating an unusual and fragile dependency.
“The most correlated in history for metals, copper, and gold, and silver to go up. They need the stock market to go up. Just never seen that high of a dependency.”Mike McGlone · 19 May 2026
Copper demand is projected to double between now and 2035.
“Demand is doubling between now and 35.”<UNKNOWN> · 28 Jul 2026