What is COVID?
COVID
COVID is a pandemic that began in 2020 and is referenced in the context of global crises and economic shocks. The material tracks its role as a shock that altered demand, pricing, and cyclical patterns across various sectors.
How it developed
- May 2026 - Warren Pies noted that late 2020, coming out of COVID, was a period when certain market conditions occurred, similar to 2000, 1997-99, and 2009, describing it as normal in early and mid-cycle.
- Jun 2026 - Jonathan Wang cited 2020 with COVID as one of the rare periods when US hotel room demand declined, alongside other global shocks like the Gulf War, tech crash, and GFC.
- Jul 2026 - Sean McGould said that since COVID and after, a certain trend has definitely accelerated, though specifics were not detailed in the provided material.
- Aug 2026 - Sam Parr mentioned that when COVID happened, monkey prices shot up from $2,000 to $20,000-$50,000 each due to demand for testing and vaccine development.
In the evidence
Every line below is attributed to a named speaker.
US hotel room demand has grown at approximately 2% per year for 40 years, declining only during four global shocks: the 1991 Gulf War, the 2001 tech crash, the 2008-2009 GFC, and 2020 COVID.
“You can see that demand for hotel rooms across the US has grown at just about 2% a year for 40 years and only ever declined in periods of global shock. So 91 with the Gulf War, 01 with the tech crash, GFC and 089 and 2020 with COVID.”Jonathan Wang · 15 Jun 2026
Narrow index leadership (top-heavy concentration) is normal in early and mid-cycle markets, not just at tops. Warren Pies cites 1997, 1998, 1999, 2009 post-GFC, and late 2020 post-COVID as precedents, arguing the bearish read of concentration is historically misinformed.
“It happened in 2000, which it did kind of happen in 2000, but it also happened in '97 and in '98 and in '99. And it also happened in 2009 coming out of the GFC. And it happened in late 2020 coming out of COVID. So, it's it's totally normal in an early and mid-cycle.”Warren Pies · 4 May 2026
Lab monkey prices surged 10x to 25x during COVID, rising from $2,000 per animal to $20,000-$50,000, driven by vaccine testing demand and China halting exports.
“They used to be 2 grand a monkey. When COVID happened, prices shot up because they needed to test for medicines, vaccines, whatnot. So it got to 20,000, 50,000 per monkey.”Sam Parr · 12 Aug 2026
During COVID, older adults showed significantly greater psychological resilience than younger adults, contradicting initial assumptions that they were the more vulnerable group.
“What we found, at least at the psychological level, we did some of this research, older adults were much more resilient than younger adults.”Alan Castel · 13 Jul 2026
Art Berman argues the current energy supply shock is a larger system-level disruption than the COVID pandemic, not merely a commodity price event.
“It certainly is a bigger system shock than CO was.”Art Berman · 13 Aug 2026
The cycle from alpha to commoditized factor beta has accelerated since COVID, as AI models rapidly identify and replicate the principal components driving market returns.
“I would say since probably COVID and after it's definitely accelerated.”Sean McGould · 7 Jul 2026