Who is Howard Marks?
Howard Marks is a prominent investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, known for his contrarian, value-oriented approach. The material tracks his views on market valuations, fund management, and crisis investing.
Track record
- Mar 2026 - Marks stated that buying the S&P 500 at a P/E ratio of 23 has historically resulted in annualized returns between 2% and -2% over the following decade, with no exceptions.
- Jul 2026 - Marks noted that while most investment firms raise larger funds after strong performance, Oaktree deliberately makes its next fund smaller, believing strong past results indicate diminished future opportunities.
- Jul 2026 - Marks observed that the best time to invest is during a crisis, but raising capital during such periods is nearly impossible due to negative news flow.
On the record
What named speakers have said about Howard Marks.
Every historical instance of buying the S&P 500 at a P/E of 23 produced annualized 10-year returns between +2% and -2%, with no exceptions.
“If you bought the S&P when the P/E ratio was 23 in every case there were no exceptions. In every case, your annualized return over the next 10 years was between two and minus two.”Howard Marks · 25 Mar 2026
Howard Marks on buying the S&P 500 at a P/E of 23 and the guaranteed range of 10-year returns.
“If you bought the S&P when the P/E ratio was 23 in every case there were no exceptions. In every case, your annualized return over the next 10 years was between two and minus two.”Howard Marks · 25 Mar 2026
Oaktree deliberately reduces the size of its next fund after strong performance, reasoning that good returns signal assets have appreciated and become less attractive, inverting the industry norm of raising larger successor funds on the back of strong track records.
“Most people in the investment business, if they have a fund that does great, the next fund is Binger because they can sell on the back of those But we make it smaller because we think those results mean that things have appreciated and are not so attractive.”Howard Marks · 15 Jul 2026
Howard Marks on why Oaktree shrinks its next fund after strong performance.
“Most people in the investment business, if they have a fund that does great, the next fund is Binger because they can sell on the back of those But we make it smaller because we think those results mean that things have appreciated and are not so attractive.”Howard Marks · 15 Jul 2026
Why crisis moments are the best time to invest but the hardest time to raise capital: the news is so terrible that investors cannot bring themselves to commit, creating a structural gap between opportunity and available capital.
“The best time to invest is in a crisis. You can't raise money during the crisis because the news is so terrible.”Howard Marks · 15 Jul 2026
Howard Marks projected S&P 500 annual returns over the next 10 years to range between -2% and +2%, based on current valuations.
“The next 10 years will fluctuate between minus two and 2%.”