What is oil?
oil
Oil is a hard asset and a real-world asset that, as of mid-2026, dominates trading volumes in the per market alongside gold and pre-IPO stocks, and is used by analysts to gauge market dynamics and potential price moves.
How it developed
- Jun 2026 - Mike Selig observed that real-world asset perps, including oil and gold, now account for over 60% of per market volume, surpassing cryptos.
- Jun 2026 - Michael Howell suggested that if the oil-gold ratio holds at 20 and gold is underpinned at $4,000–$5,000 per ounce, oil could rise to $200.
- Aug 2026 - Jack Farley advised pricing hard assets like oil in yen to understand how the current situation ends, referencing a playbook.
In the evidence
Every line below is attributed to a named speaker.
Jack Farley frames Japan's yield-curve-control episode, visible through hard assets priced in yen, as the clearest available roadmap for how U.S. financial repression resolves into hard-asset inflation.
“If you want to know how this ends, go price gold, oil, and anything else that's a hard asset in yen because this is the playbook.”Jack Farley · 20 Aug 2026
Jack Farley on how to read the Japan yield-curve-control playbook as a template for current U.S. policy outcomes.
“If you want to know how this ends, go price gold, oil, and anything else that's a hard asset in yen because this is the playbook.”Jack Farley · 20 Aug 2026
Real world assets (oil, gold, pre-IPO stocks) now account for over 60% of perpetual market volume, outpacing crypto perpetuals.
“One thing we're observing is that real world asset pers are actually dominating volume over cryptos. Per I think it's something over 60% of the volume of the per market is now looking at real world assets like oil, gold and now also these preipo stocks as well.”Mike Selig · 15 Jun 2026
Real world asset perpetuals, not crypto perpetuals, are driving the majority of perpetual market volume, challenging the assumption that crypto is the dominant use case.
“One thing we're observing is that real world asset pers are actually dominating volume over cryptos. Per I think it's something over 60% of the volume of the per market is now looking at real world assets like oil, gold and now also these preipo stocks as well.”Mike Selig · 15 Jun 2026
If the gold-to-oil ratio holds at 20 and gold is supported at $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce, oil could theoretically reach $200 per barrel.
“If you think that oil gold ratio sticks at 20 and you think that the gold market is underpinned at $4,000, $5,000 an ounce. Why shouldn't oil go to 200?”Michael Howell · 3 Jun 2026