What is Vietnam?
Vietnam
Vietnam is a Southeast Asian country whose economic trajectory and geopolitical position are of interest to investors and analysts. As of mid-2025, Vietnam’s exports to the US accounted for 30% of its total exports, a level its government reportedly sought to reduce to under 20% to lessen vulnerability to US trade policy, according to Michael Hirson. By April 2026, some investors had pivoted their portfolios toward Vietnam, though analysts cautioned that traditional emerging-market risks apply, with gold cited as a potential hedge.
How it developed
- May 2025 - Michael Hirson said that 30% of Vietnamese exports go to the US, and the government aims to reduce that to under 20% through more intra-regional trade.
- Jun 2025 - Richard Pops noted that US opioid overdose deaths in a year (60,000) exceed the number of US deaths in the Vietnam and Iraq wars combined.
- Apr 2026 - Bruce MacDonald said that within two years, an unnamed investor had stopped investing in China and pivoted his portfolio hard towards Vietnam.
- Apr 2026 - Bruce MacDonald said that traditional emerging-market risks are the biggest concern when investing in India or Vietnam, and that gold is the best hedge.
- Jul 2026 - Tom Uren said that if one needs to take action against Vietnam, Vietnamese capabilities are already available.
In the evidence
Every line below is attributed to a named speaker.
60,000 Americans are projected to die from opioid overdoses this year, surpassing combined US deaths in the Vietnam and Iraq wars.
“Put another number on it, Luke, is that 60,000 people will die this year from opioid overdose deaths in the US. That's more than died in Vietnam and the Iraq war put together.”Richard Pops · 12 Jun 2025
Vietnam as an emerging market allocation target. VCU navigated foreign ownership restrictions to make a direct allocation, with at least one manager (David Ma) pivoting his entire portfolio away from China toward Vietnam within two years.
“Within 2 years, he had stopped investing in China and pivoted his portfolio hard towards Vietnam.”Bruce MacDonald · 6 Apr 2026
Bruce MacDonald on gold as the best hedge for emerging market currency risk in India and Vietnam exposures.
“We were worried about emerging market the traditional emerging market debacle, which seems to me to be the biggest risk when you invest in an India or Vietnam. Gold actually turns out to be the best hedge.”Bruce MacDonald · 6 Apr 2026
Vietnam currently sends 30% of its exports to the US and is reportedly targeting a reduction to under 20% to lower tariff vulnerability.
“Right now 30% of Vietnamese exports go to the US. I've heard they'd like to bring that down to under 20 so that they're not as not as vulnerable to this and do more intra regional trade.”Michael Hirson · 15 May 2025
AI language translation is not a decisive espionage advantage for nation-states because they already employ native speakers for their priority intelligence targets.
“If you need to like do stuff against Vietnam, you have Vietnamese capabilities already.”Tom Uren · 27 Jul 2026