Dario Amodei predicts that AI will make it possible to cure most human diseases within 5 to 10 years.

Scaling laws are empirical relationships observed for particular architectures, objectives, and datasets, not laws of physics, meaning changing any one of those factors produces a different scaling curve.

Debt instruments become most dangerous when a long crisis-free period causes investors to treat them as money-like safe assets.

AI will lead to more software engineers in the world overall, even though fewer will be needed to do existing work.

Humans cannot intercede in the lawful progression of their own particles, meaning actions are ultimately determined by physics.

The bond market has been signaling for two years that the Fed's rate-cutting policy is wrong, as reflected in persistently higher long-term rates.

The current market irrationality is concentrated in earnings expectations, analysts are systematically too optimistic about earnings, rather than in valuations.

The AI model available today will be the worst model ever made, as every future model will be better, implying continuous, unending improvement.

A relatively small reduction in R0, from just above 1 to just below 1, is the difference between a pandemic and no pandemic.