Field Notes · 9 Jun 2026
Best explained
Casado explains why AI's impact on software volume should mirror or exceed SaaS, which delivered one to two orders of magnitude more software than what came before.
Usage-based pricing vs. seat-based pricing explains Anthropic's dramatic run-rate expansion, as compute consumed by agents scales far beyond fixed per-seat contracts.
By the numbers
Cursor's annualized run rate grew from $9 billion to $47 billion in a short period, per Martin Casado.
Anthropic's annual run rate grew from $3 billion to $47 billion, attributed to a shift from seat-based to usage-based pricing.
New today — Evidence added
China halted crude imports and resold previously purchased barrels, releasing 4.5 million barrels per day of additional supply onto the global market.
Matt SmithNew today — Sharp calls
US utilities offer 5-10 year visibility of 8-10% EPS growth, which is faster than the S&P 500's historical average growth rate of 8% over the last decade.
Rajiv JainDuring the DeepSeek moment in early 2025, Nebius stock dropped 40% in one week.
Roman CherninOne practitioner company deliberately avoids using the word 'workflow' in its product and customer interactions to encourage a delegation-focused mental model for AI deployment.
Nathan LabenzStill tracking
The market will support at most 4-5 large language models, with only 2 being very large winners; the rest will merely get by or the field will consolidate down to 2 over time.
Lloyd BlankfeinTool watch
Anthropic is worth watching as a case study in deliberate strategic focus: it raised less capital than rivals but bet on coding and succeeded.
OpenAI is pitching a plan to donate equity to the US government to seed a public wealth fund, a move worth watching for its policy and governance implications.
Worth quoting
“Trump is like sell you know he's our top salesperson for a defense ETF in Europe.”Jan Van Eck
“You've got to spend more time with them because they will inadvertently and goal seeking cut corners.”Jason Lemkin
“It basically does what Falcon Heavy does for tens of millions of dollars less money.”Tom Mueller
“Super intelligence versus extinction. Those are your two options.”Michael I. Jordan
“The equity-funded bubble of 2000 is very different than the cash flow funded bubble of today.”Denise Chisholm
“Took 30 days. That would've taken years before.”Bobby Healy