Field Notes · 15 Jun 2026
Best explained
Anthropic explains why the government jailbreak standard used against Fable is industry-ending if generalized: applying it broadly would halt all new model deployments across every frontier AI provider.
By the numbers
Cloudflare reported that agent and bot browsing now accounts for more web use than human browsing.
New today — Evidence added
Approximately 40,000 new games launched in the App Store last year, and zero became top-10 hits or sustained top-25 or top-50 rankings.
Mark PincusA very low dose of creatine (0.14 grams) appeared to improve bone preservation and muscle performance in post-menopausal women.
Darren CandowNew today — Sharp calls
Greg Isenberg on tooled small models beating large cloud models.
Greg IsenbergAnthropic claims the jailbreak capability cited in the government's directive is used every day by defenders who keep systems safe.
AnthropicSterling Crispen frames the Fable export control case as setting a precedent for punishing potential AI capabilities before they cause harm.
Sterling CrispenAnthropic states it has not received any disclosure of a harmful jailbreak, contradicting the government's national security justification for the export control directive.
AnthropicNew today — Useful context
Startup ideas should be treated as likely wrong (75% of the time), making rapid small-bet testing more rational than betting large on any single idea.
Mark PincusLuke Bailey on the limits of training only on known human solutions.
Luke BaileyAltria has outperformed Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon over the last 5 years despite cigarette volumes declining 7-8% annually in the US.
Rajiv JainNew today — Watchlist
Bond yields and crude oil prices have been perfectly correlated since March 27th.
Jim BiancoOn the platform, allocations are measured in terms of Gross Market Value (GMV), long market value plus the absolute value of short market value, rather than AUM.
Tony CarusoTool watch
Fable: a frontier AI company shut down by US government export control directive, now a central test case for how capability-based national security restrictions could apply across the AI industry.
Worth quoting
“We believe it would be good for the world to have the option to slow or temporarily pause frontier AI development.”Jason Calacanis
“The recovery is not coming if you're not getting AI budget. It ain't coming.”Jason Lemkin
“You're spending a trillion dollars a year and the revenue on AI talk about maybe 70 80 billion.”Rajiv Jain
“40 to 41% of employees saying they ship AI work that they couldn't explain if asked. This is bot f***.”Rebecca Hinds
“You cannot sell Bitcoin. If you are selling Bitcoin, the whole system breaks.”Michael Saylor
“The most high value product of the Ethereum blockchain financially speaking is ETH the asset.”Chris Berniski