Field Notes · 20 Jun 2026
Best explained
LLMs show low success rates on big thematic questions with many variable inputs, limiting their utility for generalist macro research tasks.
By the numbers
AI adopters saw 2x faster EBITDA expansion than non-adopters from 2024 to 2025.
New today — Evidence added
The US share of global foreign direct investment has risen above 20 percent, up from a 10 to 15 percent range over the prior two decades.
Chris SemenukMessari was valued at over $300 million in its 2022 Series B.
Ryan Sean AdamsNew today — Sharp calls
Michael Zezas on AI infrastructure earnings growth expectations.
Michael ZezasWebflow focused on one persona, the freelance web designer, with an addressable pool of roughly 50,000 people.
Bryant ChouNew today — Useful context
No single AI model can one-shot a new material into a real consumer product such as an iPhone or SpaceX Starship, challenging hype around foundation models for materials science.
Joseph KrauseAI coding agents still require code review; skipping human oversight is generally a bad practice.
Cat WuNew today — Watchlist
Re aims to reach $1 billion in written premium by January 1, 2027.
Karn SaroyaTool watch
Hyperliquid's pre-IPO markets priced the SpaceX IPO accurately, establishing a real-world proof of concept for the biggest IPO in history.
Worth quoting
“The moon's gravity on Earth is the same no matter what the phase of the moon is.”Neil deGrasse Tyson
“The recovery is not coming if you're not getting AI budget. It ain't coming.”Jason Lemkin
“Consensus 2027 EPS change for AI infrastructure stocks. Insane. 42%.”Michael Zezas
“Our partnership is not up to 25,000. It is over 25,000, or in other words, a minimum of 25,000.”Alex Kendall
“40 to 41% of employees saying they ship AI work that they couldn't explain if asked. This is bot f***.”Rebecca Hinds
“If you live in a state where there is an arbitrary power who can have you put to death, you are a slave.”Ada Palmer