Field Notes · 23 Jun 2026
Best explained
Geoff Woo explains that Mr. Beast's content machine is so systematized and data-driven that the personal brand of its founder is no longer a dependency for success.
Arthur Hayes explains how AI capex figures are inflated by circular revenue deals, where investors like Google and Nvidia fund AI labs that immediately spend the money buying chips back from those same investors.
By the numbers
Chinese AI models are priced at roughly 1% of the cost of comparable US AI models, per Arthur Hayes.
The global advertising pie has historically grown no more than 3 to 5 percent per year and is not expected to expand meaningfully.
Perfect AI-driven drug success prediction could reduce development costs from $5 billion to tens of millions per drug.
New today — Evidence added
Frontier AI model compute costs remain very high, limiting profitability for AI companies despite high GPU vendor margins.
Krishna RaoJake Paul's growth fund holds investments in tier one tech companies including SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Andal, Etched, and Cognition.
Jake PaulNew today — Sharp calls
Anthropic dropped six-month planning cycles in favor of just-in-time monthly planning with no formal documentation, only a lightweight spreadsheet, arguing that shorter cycles fit AI-speed iteration.
Fiona FungArthur Hayes on Chinese AI pricing undercutting US competitors.
Arthur HayesArthur Hayes explains how AI capex figures are inflated by circular revenue deals, where investors like Google and Nvidia fund AI labs that immediately spend the money buying chips back from those same investors.
Arthur HayesNikesh Arora runs a meeting called AIO twice a week to drive AI transformation at Palo Alto Networks.
Nikesh AroraNew today — Useful context
Vaginal estrogen or vaginal DHEA reduces urinary tract infections by more than half.
Rachel RubinTool watch
Jake Paul's growth fund holds positions in SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Andal, Etched, and Cognition, spanning frontier AI and compute.
Hyperliquid, a perpetuals DEX that Arthur Hayes predicts will eventually surpass Binance in trading volume, worth watching for market share trajectory.
Worth quoting
“The recovery is not coming if you're not getting AI budget. It ain't coming.”Jason Lemkin
“The moon's gravity on Earth is the same no matter what the phase of the moon is.”Neil deGrasse Tyson
“If you live in a state where there is an arbitrary power who can have you put to death, you are a slave.”Ada Palmer
“Consensus 2027 EPS change for AI infrastructure stocks. Insane. 42%.”Michael Zezas
“You don't need an AI strategy, you need an AI learning system.”Nathaniel Whittemore
“If I had a death wish, I would have just gone and done it. I would have spent nine years training for it.”Alex Honnold
“Now, you had 20 years to invest in SpaceX. You had three to invest in anthropic.”Nikesh Arora
“You have Chinese competitors with models that are good enough charging 1% of the price.”Arthur Hayes