Field Notes · 26 Jun 2026
Best explained
Mark Pincus reframes AI development workflow: write markdown that teaches LLMs to write code, rather than writing code that calls LLMs directly.
By the numbers
Mark Pincus predicts frontier AI model costs will compress from roughly $100,000 to $1,000 within two years.
New today — Evidence added
OpenAI's pro models are 3-4x more expensive per token than Anthropic's Claude 4 (Fable 5), contradicting the perception that Claude 4 is the most expensive model.
Tomasz TunguzInterval app's cost per trial start on Meta is approximately $12.
Alice ZhangNew today — Sharp calls
Schwab charges $100 per trade for Hong Kong-listed stocks.
Mark Pincus uses the term 'fish are running' to describe product-market fit, the state where everything works and feedback loops are all positive.
Mark PincusNew today — Useful context
Margin debt is at an all-time high of $1.3-$1.4 trillion.
Marc FaberTool watch
Databricks is worth watching as it claims a 30-day LLM-assisted full data migration capability, which could accelerate enterprise switching costs and undermine legacy vendor lock-in.
Worth quoting
“I don't really love the bitter lesson as people try and apply it. In fact, alpha fold 2 is the opposite of that.”John Jumper
“Now, you had 20 years to invest in SpaceX. You had three to invest in anthropic.”Nikesh Arora
“You have Chinese competitors with models that are good enough charging 1% of the price.”Arthur Hayes
“If I had a death wish, I would have just gone and done it. I would have spent nine years training for it.”Alex Honnold
“You don't need an AI strategy, you need an AI learning system.”Nathaniel Whittemore
“Consensus 2027 EPS change for AI infrastructure stocks. Insane. 42%.”Michael Zezas
“The retail IPO is the exit liquidity for the private market.”Rick Rule