28 Jun 2026
Signal Headquarters

Field Notes · 28 Jun 2026

Best explained

LLMs contain a latent 'valence' axis representing 'things going well or poorly for me' that pre-exists in base models but is only activated for goal-directed behavior after reinforcement learning fine-tuning.

By the numbers

A diamond cooling test in a San Francisco data center doubled the compute output of a single GPU.

New today — Evidence added

For small classification tasks, a fine-tuned 1-billion parameter model can recover approximately 95% of the performance of a frontier model.

swyx

New today — Sharp calls

Noam Brown on why safety frameworks are already outdated in a test-time-compute world.

Noam Brown

The cost per trial start for the Interval app on Meta is approximately $12.

Alice Zhang

FOMO plans to keep headcount below 25 in a year's time.

Paul Erlanger

New today — Useful context

AI tools reduce task completion time by an order of magnitude or more in domain-specific workflows.

Greg Isenberg

New today — Watchlist

Over the last 27 days, the S&P 493 (equal-weight ex-Magnificent 7) outperformed the Magnificent 7 by 18%, the largest such spread since 2018.

Ryan Detrick

Tool watch

E2B and Daytona, sandbox infrastructure providers for AI agents, are worth tracking given sustained 50 percent plus monthly growth over more than a year.

Worth quoting

“You will not receive the advice from investment advisers to get your tail out of the market, ever.”
Jeremy Grantham
“Whichever species understands the other better is the species with the agency.”
Robert Wright
“Walt's line on this was that ABC needed the show so badly that they bought the amusement park with it.”
Ben Gilbert
“The retail IPO is the exit liquidity for the private market.”
Rick Rule
“The flabby middle is high risk for these just when they're all ready to go IPO, they have a brand new existential risk.”
Rory O'Driscoll
“Cocoa is to cocaine what potatoes are to vodka.”
Andrew Weil