Field Notes · 4 Jul 2026
Best explained
Dual token equity structures fail because the two asset classes share one pool of value but shareholders hold legally enforceable Delaware law protections while token holders rely only on informal commitments, making tokens structurally junior equity.
By the numbers
Manufacturing PMIs historically lag ISM leading indicators by approximately two months, offering a predictive window for industrial activity deterioration.
New today — Evidence added
Deals getting funded at Series A are currently going from $1.5M to $15M ARR in a year, not $1.5M to $5M.
Jason LemkinNew today — Sharp calls
Isaiah Taylor describing Valar Atomics' planned passive-safety demonstration, cutting all electrical systems immediately after a reactor scram.
Isaiah TaylorStripe is making OUSD the default stablecoin for businesses transacting on Stripe.
Ryan Sean AdamsNew today — Useful context
S&P 500 earnings growth has accelerated from the 25-year average of 8% per year to 12-15% currently.
ErikIn the last 10 years, small-cap rallies versus large caps have lasted at most three to six months.
Brian BelskiNew today — Watchlist
The US has been exporting large amounts of gold to China (via Hong Kong and Switzerland) to offset trade deficits, rather than settling them with dollar-denominated treasury assets.
Francis HuntTool watch
Cloudflare is integrating X42 stablecoin payments using OUSD and USDC, with management warning no existing blockchain can handle the eventual scale.
Worth quoting
“The flabby middle is high risk for these just when they're all ready to go IPO, they have a brand new existential risk.”Rory O'Driscoll
“Walt's line on this was that ABC needed the show so badly that they bought the amusement park with it.”Ben Gilbert
“I personally favor a soft lean and done approach to Ethereum once the straw map is completed.”Vitalik Buterin
“Consensus 2027 EPS change for AI infrastructure stocks. Insane. 42%.”Michael Zezas
“If I had a death wish, I would have just gone and done it. I would have spent nine years training for it.”Alex Honnold
“Cocoa is to cocaine what potatoes are to vodka.”Andrew Weil