9 Jul 2026
Signal Headquarters

Field Notes · 9 Jul 2026

Best explained

Open-weight models now rival frontier model performance while giving operators direct control over the underlying weights, decoupling capability from vendor dependency.

By the numbers

Solo founders accounted for 63% of new C-Corps formed in Q2 2026, an all-time high, per Stripe Atlas data.

New today — Evidence added

The Federal Reserve discovered in late fall 2025 that reserve balances had been reduced as far as possible and subsequently had to begin growing them again.

Darrell Duffie

New today — Sharp calls

Guy Oseary makes 90% of his decisions within the first 5 minutes.

Guy Oseary

The Gusto product team operated with no meetings, no text specs, no Figmas, and no written docs throughout the build.

Tomer London

New today — Useful context

Solo founders accounted for 63% of new C-Corps formed in Q2 2026, an all-time high, per Stripe Atlas data.

Nathaniel Whittemore

Over the past 12 months, S&P 500 earnings growth (32%) has outpaced the S&P 500's price return (22%).

Michael Batnick

New today — Watchlist

The Trace Research Institute will be launched in summer 2026 to pursue Hoffman's research on consciousness and the foundations of reality.

Donald Hoffman

Tool watch

Gusto Copilot is enabling small business owners to build automations outside of payroll and HR (such as weather alerts for tour operators), suggesting it is expanding into a general-purpose automation layer for SMBs.

Osirion is building end-to-end olfactory AI infrastructure, including a human-nose-level sensor, a 6-billion-molecule chemical space map, a 5.43M-sniff training dataset, and a high-throughput fragrance robot.

Worth quoting

“Consensus 2027 EPS change for AI infrastructure stocks. Insane. 42%.”
Michael Zezas
“If you live in a state where there is an arbitrary power who can have you put to death, you are a slave.”
Ada Palmer
“The moon's gravity on Earth is the same no matter what the phase of the moon is.”
Neil deGrasse Tyson
“If I had a death wish, I would have just gone and done it. I would have spent nine years training for it.”
Alex Honnold
“Walt's line on this was that ABC needed the show so badly that they bought the amusement park with it.”
Ben Gilbert
“Cocoa is to cocaine what potatoes are to vodka.”
Andrew Weil