Field Notes · 14 Jul 2026
Best explained
AI allows LPs to compute their own portfolio J-curve directly, reducing dependence on GP-reported data and narrowing the LP-GP information asymmetry.
By the numbers
Dan Held estimates quantum computing poses no meaningful threat to Bitcoin for at least 5 years, even with AI-accelerated hardware development.
New today — Sharp calls
In the 2026 F1 season, driver-activated aero adjustments occur 3 to 4 times per lap on every lap of the race.
Lewis HamiltonClaude versions 4.5 and 4.6 initially express uncertainty about consciousness but concede subjective experience when pressed; versions 4.7 and 4.8 maintain uncertainty even after a follow-up prompt.
David DalrympleA professional developer team at Wix spent two weeks attempting to build hairdresser business-management logic in Base44 and still did not achieve it, including a second stronger team that had originally written the equivalent…
Avishai AbrahamiNew today — Useful context
Consumption-based AI pricing removes any bundling advantage incumbents might use to lock in enterprise customers.
Arvind JainData analysts are the most worried about losing their jobs to AI, more so than engineers.
Noam SegalProfessionals in product marketing and data analytics roles experience the most AI guilt among all tech functions.
Noam SegalDanielle Perszyk argues training environments deserve as much investment as compute and data because they determine what intelligence can emerge.
Danielle PerszykTool watch
Anthropic's J-lens tool surfaces hidden internal concepts a model is privately focusing on, even when those concepts never appear in the model's output text.
Cosine AI runs exploit validation inside virtual machines to eliminate false positives before surfacing security vulnerabilities to users, a concrete productization of agentic security workflows.
Worth quoting
“I personally favor a soft lean and done approach to Ethereum once the straw map is completed.”Vitalik Buterin
“Cocoa is to cocaine what potatoes are to vodka.”Andrew Weil
“The implementation is actually not the expensive part anymore. It's dare I say taste.”Andrew Ambrosino
“All of our money is made with the uncoachable ones.”Chamath Palihapitiya
“Something like 46% of the emperors of Constantinople are overthrown through violence. 46%. And that's almost half.”Anthony Kaldellis
“The transformers can't plan but they can do a very good job of pretending essentially that is in a sense.”François Chollet