18 Jul 2026
Signal Headquarters

Field Notes · 18 Jul 2026

Best explained

Masad explains virality as a function of embedding your argument inside the dominant ongoing debate, not just producing content. The meta-awareness of the current conversation is the scarce input, not the act of posting itself.

By the numbers

Tom Lee accumulated 4.8% of all ETH supply (5.77 million ETH) in one year during a bear market, reaching 96% of his stated 5% target.

New today — Evidence added

Ethereum earns only 0.15% of L2 revenue for data availability, roughly $1,200 out of $816,000 generated by Robin Hood chain via Arbitrum.

David Hoffman

AI capex exceeds AI revenue by half a trillion dollars annually.

Rory O'Driscoll

New today — Sharp calls

Rory O'Driscoll on CFO pushback against doubling tech budgets without headcount reduction.

Rory O'Driscoll

Ramez Naam warns that AI 2040 uses speculative doomsday framing to justify real authoritarian surveillance infrastructure.

Ramez Naam

Avantis's first five products outperformed their benchmarks by an average of 280 basis points while charging only 7 basis points more than passive equivalents.

Jonathan Thomas

Migrating 10 years of data off of Marketo cost only $1,421 in total.

Amelia Lerutte

New today — Useful context

GPIF, Japan's national pension fund, holds $1.8 trillion in assets, making it the world's largest pension fund.

Peter Boockvar

Tool watch

Replit, used as an autonomous coding agent that spawns sub-agents (including one on OpenAI Codex) for complex tasks and collaborates with Claude via MCP without direct human orchestration.

Worth quoting

“We're spending half a trillion dollars more than we're taking in.”
Rory O'Driscoll
“I would say something like 70% chance that this goes horribly wrong like human extinction.”
Dario Amodei
“From Bitcoin's code perspective, it didn't bend the knee. The institutions bent the knee to bring Bitcoin into it.”
Dan Held
“40 to 41% of employees saying they ship AI work that they couldn't explain if asked. This is bot f***.”
Rebecca Hinds
“The moon's gravity on Earth is the same no matter what the phase of the moon is.”
Neil deGrasse Tyson
“If you live in a state where there is an arbitrary power who can have you put to death, you are a slave.”
Ada Palmer