Field Notes · 27 Jul 2026
Best explained
Model capabilities emerge discontinuously as data and compute scale, appearing as sudden jumps rather than smooth improvements.
By the numbers
Anthropic's product PM hiring loop has remained unchanged for three years despite rapid model capability growth.
New today — Evidence added
JP Morgan analysts found that since ChatGPT launched in late 2022, AI drove 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth, and 90% of capital spending growth.
Nathaniel WhittemoreAnthropic shipped more model series in Q2 2026 alone than in all of 2024, when four model series were shipped for the full year.
Lenny RachitskyNew today — Sharp calls
Citadel Securities invested $400 million in Crypto.com despite founder Ken Griffin calling crypto a 'jihadist call against the dollar' as recently as 2021.
Ryan Sean AdamsOlivier Pomel reads all employee survey comments personally, even at Datadog's current scale, to maintain ground-level organizational awareness.
Olivier PomelNew today — Useful context
Pivoting has not gotten cheaper with AI because the hardest assets discarded in a pivot, customer understanding and domain knowledge, are not software.
Garry TanEuropean interest coverage ratios in private markets have stabilised at a comfortable level.
Nicholas BrooksTool watch
Grok (xAI) is worth watching as a fast-closing competitor to Anthropic on both price (65% cheaper) and capability, with Baron predicting parity within six months.
Worth quoting
“The transformers can't plan but they can do a very good job of pretending essentially that is in a sense.”François Chollet
“Something like 46% of the emperors of Constantinople are overthrown through violence. 46%. And that's almost half.”Anthony Kaldellis
“It's not the stress that burns us down, it's the response to stress.”Martin Picard
“The implementation is actually not the expensive part anymore. It's dare I say taste.”Andrew Ambrosino
“If we just talk specifically about 300 million ARR, most of that's like almost 70% are agencies.”Alex Mashrabov
“All of our money is made with the uncoachable ones.”Chamath Palihapitiya