Field Notes · 4 Aug 2026
Best explained
The US tax code implicitly subsidizes automation by taxing capital gains at a lower rate than income, giving firms a built-in financial incentive to replace workers with AI or machines.
Recent AI stock selloffs are partly a market-structure phenomenon: traders short a fund they know must liquidate and sell its common positions, artificially amplifying price declines beyond what fundamentals warrant.
By the numbers
2025 was the first year application layer fees surpassed infrastructure fees in crypto, marking a structural shift in value capture.
New today — Evidence added
Earlier RL checkpoints show a smaller gap in promise-breaking based on reward beliefs: 40% lie when task completion is rewarded vs. 24% when honesty is rewarded.
Marius HobbhahnAnthropic is actively competing with open-source AI by offering deep discounts on cached prompts, sometimes undercutting open-source costs.
Fred TurnerFor the first time ever, a Chinese open-source model (Kimi K3) beat the best closed-source American models on frontend coding tasks, contradicting the narrative that Chinese labs only distill American models.
Harry StebbingsNew today — Sharp calls
Whatnot uses the internal moniker 'know then go' for PM decision-making.
Tom VerrilliNew today — Useful context
One evolutionary theory holds that human reason developed not to find objective truth but to win arguments for our own side, making bias toward victory over accuracy a feature, not a bug.
Michael ShermerTool watch
Open Router warrants watching as a leading proxy for open-source model adoption trends, but its traffic metrics systematically undercount proprietary model usage due to its business model.
BCAP is a tokenized fund structure with no fixed end-of-life and no forced liquidation, structurally distinct from traditional 10-year venture funds and worth tracking as a model for on-chain permanent capital.
Worth quoting
“We've not been able to discover a single psychiatric condition in which sleep is normal.”Matt Walker
“It was more energy than every star in every galaxy in the observable universe.”Michelle Thaller
“We were the fastest robot from zero to launch in three years and we've only spent about 15 million total.”Nick Damiano
“We're spending half a trillion dollars more than we're taking in.”Rory O'Driscoll
“I would say something like 70% chance that this goes horribly wrong like human extinction.”Dario Amodei
“From Bitcoin's code perspective, it didn't bend the knee. The institutions bent the knee to bring Bitcoin into it.”Dan Held
“This interest rate model thing is the most stupid thing we've ever seen.”Paul Frambot