5 Aug 2026
Signal Headquarters

Field Notes · 5 Aug 2026

Best explained

Recent AI stock selloffs are partly a market-structure phenomenon: traders short a fund they know must liquidate and sell its common positions, artificially amplifying price declines beyond what fundamentals warrant.

By the numbers

2025 was the first year application layer fees surpassed infrastructure fees in crypto, marking a structural shift in value capture.

New today — Evidence added

After reward-hacking training, Redwood Research models changed their behavior more than twice as much in response to grader information compared to before reward-hacking training.

Marius Hobbhahn

New today — Sharp calls

Open Router leaderboard data overstates open-source model adoption because its fee-per-token business model drives users away from proprietary APIs onto open-source alternatives, making its traffic unrepresentative of total…

Harry Stebbings

On why fully permissionless trading of tokenized equities is a regulatory non-starter.

Bankless

New today — Useful context

In Japan, government contracts can serve as bank collateral, allowing startups to access growth funding faster than through investor fundraising rounds.

Akemi Tsunagawa

Adding more AI agents to a task can produce worse outcomes than fewer agents due to coordination overhead.

Greg Isenberg

Tool watch

BCAP is a tokenized fund structure with no fixed end-of-life and no forced liquidation, structurally distinct from traditional 10-year venture funds and worth tracking as a model for on-chain permanent capital.

Worth quoting

“If we just talk specifically about 300 million ARR, most of that's like almost 70% are agencies.”
Alex Mashrabov
“It's not the stress that burns us down, it's the response to stress.”
Martin Picard
“Every good AI is good in the same way. Every rogue AI is rogue in its own way.”
David Dalrymple
“In the last 2 years, 31,832 people applied to be a product manager at Whatnot. We hired one.”
Tom Verrilli
“You get to keep your harness separate from the model. That means any model at any given time is swappable.”
Satya Nadella
“Many companies that go bankrupt here are actually profitable. They simply don't have successors.”
Akemi Tsunagawa