AI is expected to reduce G&A headcount (marketing, finance, HR) by roughly half within three years at enterprise companies.

In the steady state, dev teams will be cut by 30-40% as a trade-off for $100k per-engineer AI token budgets.

“I think it'll land at 100 grand per engineer equivalent. I think that's what we'll I think we'll give each of our best engineers $100,000 of tokens and in return we'll cut the size of our dev teams 30 40% effectively.”

AI tools now let a single contributor do data analysis work in a Hex thread that would have taken an Amazon L7 a week or two.

“You can call data now on a hex thread that is basically what it would take a week, two weeks with an Amazon L7.”

Current-generation AI models are capable of handling every back-office task at Curative; deployment speed is the only remaining constraint.

“Today the current gen models can do every back office task we have at curative it's just a matter of deploying them.”

Mass unemployment due to AI will not occur until 2028 or 2029, after superintelligence is achieved.

“The mass unemployment doesn't happen until 2028 or 2029 after they already have super intelligence.”

Instagram has created a new role called 'product staff' that is an evolution of the PM, capable of doing tasks traditionally done by designers, data scientists, and researchers using internal AI tools.

“One we call product staff which is sort of an evolution of the PM. So a PM who can do some of what a designer does and some of what a data scientist does and some of what a research does leveraging the latest tools that we have for them.”

In the next three years, companies will likely have half the headcount in G&A functions such as marketing, finance, and HR.

“My rule of thumb is that in the next three years, we'll probably have half the people in GNA type activities in companies, things like marketing, things like finance, things like HR because there's a lot of process management there.”

Demand for accounting is expected to increase by one or two orders of magnitude due to growing economic complexity driven by AI agents.

“I kind of suspect that demand for accounting was going to go up by probably a couple orders of magnitude.”

Stripe's strategic response to AI-driven productivity gains is to build more products rather than reduce headcount.

“Our belief is that it's just an opportunity to I'm being a little cheeky, but build everything.”

Software jobs have not declined despite coding agents because as model taste increases, you need even higher taste people to steer them effectively, and this dynamic will remain true for the considerable future.

“Despite coding agents if anything there are like more software jobs like the number of software jobs has increased not decreased despite the capabilities of coding agents because fundamentally you need very high taste as models get higher taste you need even higher taste people to be able to steer them effectively. And I foresee that being true for the considerable future.”

In a world with widespread robotics, drones, and AI, DoorDash will have more human Dashers doing deliveries in 10 years than it does today.

“My prediction actually is in a world where robotics, drones, AI is everywhere. my guess is that in 10 years time, we're actually going to have more Dashers doing deliveries, not less.”

Every Harvey deployment requires both a field deployment engineer and a lawyer, indicating a high-touch, expert-heavy deployment model.

“Every deployment they do at Harvey has an FD and a lawyer.”

By 2027, enterprises may be unable to prove any productivity gains from AI investments.

“We may reach a situation in 2027 where we just cannot prove any of these productivity gains.”