Anthropic and OpenAI are each expected to exceed $30 billion in annual revenue in 2026, driven by usage-based pricing.
The case
OpenAI can afford model training by generating modest margins on trillions of dollars of inference revenue, rather than requiring high margins on training itself.
“We will have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantically high margin business to be able to afford model training. Like so much of our future compute plans will be used to sell inference to customers >> that even if we can enjoy a modest margin on trillions of dollars of revenue, we can go afford to train some.”Sam Altman · 28 Jul 2026
Jake Paul's growth fund holds investments in tier one tech companies including SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Andal, Etched, and Cognition.
“A lot of the tier one names, maybe all the tier one names. but andal, etched, cognition, spacex, open AI, anthropic.”Jake Paul · 22 Jun 2026
Venture firms are now making billion-dollar investments in single companies, a scale previously unheard of in VC.
“Some of the venture firm willing to put 1 billion into some company >> is very unheard of in the VC business now it's happening.”Lip Bu Tan · 18 Jun 2026
Mercor added $300 million in net new ARR in the last 60 days.
“We've expanded our relationships with all of the Frontier Labs and added 300 million in net new ARR in the last 60 days.”Brendan Foody · 1 Jun 2026
Korgi spends approximately $400,000 per month on Anthropic and $0 on OpenAI.
“Given that we spend maybe like $400,000 per month on Anthropic and $0 on OpenAI at the moment.”Nico Laqua · 30 May 2026
Anthropic and OpenAI are adding more revenue per month than Meta, Google, or Microsoft.
“Basically Anthropic and OpenAI are adding more revenue per month than Meta Google or Microsoft.”Marc Andreessen · 29 May 2026
The pushback
As of approximately May 2026, total GLP-1 drug revenue was greater than the combined total revenue of all AI labs.
“Up until I think 3 months ago right GLP1's like total revenue was more than all of the AI labs put.”Neil Patil · 11 Aug 2026
The shift to usage-based pricing is the primary reason OpenAI and Anthropic will exceed $200 billion in ARR in 2026.
“I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over $200 billion in ARR this year.”Gavin Baker · 20 May 2026
The market will support at most 4-5 large language models, with only 2 being very large winners; the rest will merely get by or the field will consolidate down to 2 over time.
“Will all these technologies work? No. Will the people who have technologies that work all succeed? No, the world may not need 10 large language models. Maybe it needs four, will be winners and two will be very big winners and the other two will get by and maybe it'll get reduced over time to two.”Lloyd Blankfein · 12 May 2026
Major AI companies are not highly profitable because the underlying GPU chips remain expensive, despite Nvidia's high margins.
“I don't think these companies are all that profitable partly because you know, the underlying chips are not all that cheap.”Amjad Masad · 25 Apr 2026
Revenue from semaglutide and tirzepatide alone is approaching parity with revenue from top AI companies.
“We're already approaching parity with what we're seeing in AI as far as revenue goes.”Dr Alex Tatem · 20 Apr 2026
95% of people who have been given free AI tools are not willing to pay for them.
“95% of people who have been given the free iPhone are not willing to pay for it.”Daniel Priestley · 16 Mar 2026