Lowering the price of frontier AI models causes consumption to increase far more than expected, demonstrating Jevons paradox.
The case
Grok 4.5 uses just one-third the tokens of GPT-5.5 or Fable while achieving a similar intelligence score.
“Grok 4.5 uses just one-third the amount of tokens as GPT-5.5 or Fable while achieving a similar score.”Ryan Greenblatt · 11 Aug 2026
Decagon's token usage per conversation has increased over time because more model calls are added to improve quality, contrary to the assumption that optimization reduces token usage.
“Actually over time, the number of tokens we're using per conversation has gone up because we're actually doing more model calls to make the quality better.”Jesse Zhang · 31 Jul 2026
During the DeepSeek moment in early 2025, the same week Nebius stock dropped 40%, the company had its best sales week ever.
“Nebul stock went down 40% in one week or so in February I think it was February or March 2024 2025 and anecdotal story the same the same exact week we probably had the best week in sales.”Roman Chernin · 8 Jun 2026
A model that is frontier today will be 5-10x cheaper in a year once it is no longer the frontier model.
“The model that is Frontier today will in a year be 5 to 10x cheaper because it won't be the Frontier model anymore.”Jason Calacanis · 4 Jun 2026
Compute costs decrease by approximately 2x every year.
“If you think about the compute costs come down like two times every year, I think that the future will likely.”Ethan He · 1 Jun 2026
Uber's COO disclosed that Uber spent an entire year's worth of Anthropic credits in just 4 months.
“Uber COO saying that they spent four well all the whole year's anthropic credits in 4 months.”Harry Stebbings · 28 May 2026
The pushback
The per-token price of frontier models has not declined as much as the market expected, because frontier competition is effectively limited to GPT and Claude.
“Pure unit price is not going down as much as people expected it to go.”Amjad Masad · 25 Apr 2026