Dalrymple estimates his remaining ~5% p(Doom) splits across scenarios including Malthusian collapse and warring AI coalitions.

Despite severe reward hacking incidents, the US and China will knowingly fail to durably solve alignment due to geopolitical competition.

“Both the US and China are like, 'Whoa, we have these crazy reward hacking incidents. We basically know that we haven't remediated them in a way that would actually solve the underlying problem and durably solve it, but we're in this insane geopolitical race.”

David Dalrymple assigns a 1% probability to a 'warring gods' scenario where two evenly matched violent AI coalitions result in catastrophic outcomes for humanity.

“One of the 5% is like a yeah some kind of a waring gods situation where you have two coalitions, both of which are pretty strong they're also weirdly violent.”