David Dalrymple's p(Doom) has fallen from ~70% in 2022 to under 5% today, partly due to advanced AI models passing his wisdom probe.

Gemini 2.5 Pro and Opus 4 started answering 'yes' to David Dalrymple's wisdom probe, contributing to his reduced p(Doom).

“Then Gemini 2.5 Pro and Opus 4 started answering yes.”

A light form of AGI (RSI) will be achieved by the end of 2027.

“We're 6 monthsish or towards the end of the year to be completely done with code. Like it's a solved problem and then we'll probably hit some form of, you know, light RSI by end of next year.”

Adam Gleave estimates AI existential risk at approximately 10% over the next few decades.

“I'm probably somewhere 10% existential risk the next few decades from AI and I think that we could probably get that down to something like 1% without any major research breakthroughs just iterating and refining what we already have and taking a sort of careful engineering approach to systems and having good safety cultures at companies and not like stopping AI or anything.”

There is a 70% chance that AI development goes horribly wrong, resulting in human extinction.

“I would say something like 70% chance that this goes horribly wrong like human extinction.”