The seed-stage venture risk premium arbitrage has disappeared, making $50–100M seed funds the worst-performing segment of the market.

Seed investors' effective entry price has doubled from 2x to 4x their nominal entry price due to dilution.

“When I started, my model was I'm actually paying twice my entry price. Okay, that's how I model. Now it's 4x.”

The risk premium arbitrage at the seed stage has completely disappeared.

“There was a real arbitrage because the risk premium at the seed stage was way overstated. That has changed completely.”