AI coding productivity for leading-edge engineers is dramatically higher than baseline, with estimates ranging from 2x (median practitioners) to 20x (top programmers).

Most Stripe Minions PRs originated from a single engineer who orchestrates 16 agents simultaneously from one screen.

“Most of the PRs came from one guy. He's got Alexander now. He's just got a screen. He's orchestrating 16 agents and he's going a whole lot faster.”

AI practitioners at a recursive event report getting 2x work done with AI assistance.

“The median answer was basically two. In other words, people felt like they're getting two times as >> work done thanks to AI. But that was also framed in an interesting way where it was like, but note that as of today >> if you were not there, your productivity would drop to close to zero.”

GitHub is now doing more activity in a month than it did in an entire year the previous year.

“Now we're doing more in a month than we did in a year last year.”

Entry-level candidates with AI proficiency are 5x-10x more productive than those without, causing Steven Bartlett to pass over non-AI-proficient candidates even for entry-level roles.

“The person that still is on the coldface of hiring in my company is when I see entry- level positions, the first thing I'm looking for is if they have an AI proficiency. And there are candidates now, even for me at entry- level positions that I'm not selecting for because I realize that someone with an AI proficiency in that exact same role is now like a five or 10x person.”

A median-salary employee laid off from ClickUp at $125K adds no value to processing AI-generated ideas; only a million-dollar person can.

“I desperately need a human for those ideas. But a 125k laidoff clickuper is worth nothing to me. I need a million-dollar person to process these ideas.”

GPT-5.5 shows a 30-point benchmark bump, reaching a score of 60 out of 100, and will reach senior engineer level within a year or less.

“GPT 5.5 there's like a 30-point bump in the score. 60 out of 100. It's like very it's very clear that in a year or less, it's going to be senior engineer level, right?”

Stripe's internal AI knowledge tool Kai increased seller productivity by 20%.

“Seller productivity has increased by 20%.”

AI-driven coding productivity gains are 2-3x, not the commonly cited 5-10x.

“I don't think that it's a 5 to 10x gain. I do think it's a 2 to 3x gain maybe across the board.”

In an RCT by Meter, software developers allowed to use AI were actually slower at completing tasks than those not allowed to use AI.

“Meter came out with an uplift RCT, which I think was the first of its kind, or at least the largest and highest quality, where they had software developers split into two groups. One group was allowed to use AI, the other group was disallowed from using AI. And they studied, you know, how quickly those developers solved issues, like tasks on their to-do list. And it actually turned out that in this case, AI slowed down their performance.”