Venture-scale exits now require $10B+ valuations, as $1B outcomes no longer return a fund.

Canva is currently worth approximately $12 billion, despite a $50 billion private mark, given ~20% growth at $4B ARR and existential risk.

“I'd say it's probably worth 12 billion right now. 20% growth at 4 billion ARR in the current public markets and not acceler decelerating.”

A growth trajectory from $1.5M to $5M to $15M in revenue is no longer sufficient to merit a venture investment.

“I very candidly said I turned down a company the other day that went from 1 and a half and they were going to go to five and then they were going to go from five to 15 and it's just not enough anymore.”

The current proliferation of 60+ independent AI model companies (neolabs) is unsustainable and will not result in that many successful standalone model companies.

“There's no way in hell that you know we're going to have 60 independent model companies.”

Founders should only sell their company if the offer is at least 10x the last round valuation; 3x is not sufficient.

“Three 3x not good enough, man. Got to be 10x.”

You cannot do Series A venture investing today unless your fund is at least $400 million.

“You can't do series A unless you have a $400 million fund today. Absolutely no chance.”

Venture-scale exits now require $10B+ valuations; a $1B exit is no longer sufficient to return a fund.

“A billion dollars doesn't do it anymore. It needs to be 10. It needs to be 20, 30.”

OpenAI has accepted going public after Anthropic and SpaceX, and is prepared to trade at a precisely known valuation of $1.3 trillion without that outcome being catastrophic.

“We're going to go public second and then we're going to have a comp out there and the comp is what it is and we may not trade with the hype that SpaceX and Anthropic did and the world will not end like we will trade at a very precise number we will know what we're going to go out at it and the world will not end if we trade at 1.3 trillion.”

Sierra intentionally guided to and accepted a lower valuation than what investors were willing to offer in every funding round.

“We actually guided to and took a lower price than we.”

Deals getting funded at Series A are currently going from $1.5M to $15M ARR in a year, not $1.5M to $5M.

“The deals that people the deals that are getting swept off are going one and a half to 15.”