Jeremy Grantham's advice on US equities is three words: "Don't own US stocks."
The veteran investor's market call is unusually blunt, and he pairs it with a direct swipe at the advice investors typically get from their advisers.
Jeremy Grantham’s position on US equities is not hedged. His on-air directive: “Don’t own US stocks.” The argument rests partly on a structural point about the advice investors receive, or fail to receive. In his telling, the financial advisory industry is constitutionally unable to tell clients to exit, which means the warning, when it is warranted, tends not to arrive. He acknowledged that historical precedent pushes against his view, but held the position “even though history tells you that is absolutely not the case.”
You will not receive the advice from investment advisers to get your tail out of the market, ever. Jeremy Grantham
The market call sits alongside a broader set of concerns Grantham raised about long-term health and demographic trends. On the demographic side, he pointed to Japan’s 20-year-old population now sitting at roughly half its prior level, and cited a reported global sperm count decline running at around 2.5% per year. A recent US Geological Survey finding, as he described it, puts at least 45% of US tap water as contaminated with PFAS chemicals, which he links to broader reproductive and health stress.
Taken together, the picture Grantham sketches is one where structural deterioration, in markets, in public health, and in demographics, is further along than most institutional commentary acknowledges. Whether his equity call proves correct is speculative. What is clear is that the call itself is unusually direct for someone of his standing.