What is Fed?

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the central bank of the United States, responsible for monetary policy. Recent commentary has focused on internal dissent, rate path uncertainty, communication challenges, and the impact of fiscal deficits on inflation.

• Apr 2026 - Jack Farley noted that the Fed meeting had the most dissents since 1992.
• Apr 2026 - Jack Farley said there is no path to the Fed cutting rates in 2026 without a crisis.
• May 2026 - Jim Bianco reported that market pricing shifted from expecting 2.5 rate cuts to a 50/50 chance of a rate hike in 70 days.
• May 2026 - James Lavish said inflation the Fed is worried about will hit a wall in the labor market.
• Jun 2026 - Bob Sheehan said the Fed cut the number of words in its communications from roughly 340 to 170.
• Jun 2026 - Jack Farley stated that it is not possible to get core inflation below 3% when the government runs deficits of 6% of GDP annually.
• Jun 2026 - Michael Howell argued the Fed needs to tighten quickly to preempt a bigger inflation problem, but expects it won’t.
• Jun 2026 - Skanda Amarnath noted that Bernanke called the Fed’s balance sheet a ‘meaningless statement.’
• Jun 2026 - Dan Ivascyn said the market will be fine with more standard and targeted communication from the Fed.
• Jul 2026 - Michael Strain said he does not think the Fed will hike in 2026, noting he is out of step with the bond market.
• Jul 2026 - Brent Donnelly said if payrolls come in at 28k and 4.4%, the Fed will slowplay and keep kicking the can, and will end up being a lot more dovish over time.
• Jul 2026 - Jack Farley said the risk is that liquidity wanes and the Fed is too hawkish while labor data and inflation come down, causing both to unwind simultaneously.