What is Federal Reserve?

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the central bank of the United States, responsible for monetary policy. The supplied material tracks market expectations and debates around its interest rate decisions, independence, inflation management, and reserve operations in 2026.

• Jun 2026 - Ryan Sean Adams reported a 51% chance of a federal rate hike in 2026, and that nine of 18 Fed officials now see a hike by year-end.
• Jun 2026 - Joseph Wang said he does not think the Fed will hike this year, that monetary policy alone cannot achieve objectives, and that significant consolidation of power within the Fed chair may occur within a year or two.
• Jun 2026 - Luke Gromen predicted the Fed won’t be independent, but effectively more married with the Treasury, adding that the debt is too high and there isn’t enough balance to finance it without the Fed’s help.
• Jul 2026 - Claudia Sahm said that with inflation hitting 4% in May, the US is now five years without reaching 2% inflation.
• Jul 2026 - Darrell Duffie said the Fed discovered late last fall that it had gotten reserves down as low as they could get them and had to start growing them again at around $40 billion a month.