What is Supreme Court?
Supreme Court
The Supreme Court is the highest federal court in the United States, with the authority to interpret the Constitution and federal law. Its decisions can shape policy on issues ranging from executive power to trade.
How it developed
- Dec 2025 - Tyler Cowen predicted that the Supreme Court would likely strike down unilateral tariffs imposed by President Trump, saying, “The idea that you can just put a tariff on Canada and chocolate from Madagascar because Trump said so, I do think that’s likely to go away, and soon.”
- May 2026 - Jim Bianco speculated that if the Supreme Court gives President Trump an opening to fire Federal Reserve Chair Lisa Cook, he would likely fire Jerome Powell the same day.
- Jul 2026 - Nicholas Merrill reported that authorities withdrew a letter but decided to try to leave a gag order in place, a matter that could involve Supreme Court review.
- Aug 2026 - Laura Shin said, “I think it’s inevitable we’ll see this in the Supreme Court before long,” referring to a legal dispute likely to reach the Court.
In the evidence
Every line below is attributed to a named speaker.
The government withdrew an NSL to avoid a likely Supreme Court loss but simultaneously attempted to keep the accompanying gag order in place, separating the letter from its silence requirement.
“They withdrew the letter but they decided to try to leave the gag order in place.”Nicholas Merrill · 7 Jul 2026
Kalshi is at the center of an unprecedented CFTC emergency authority dispute that Laura Shin predicts will reach the Supreme Court, making it a key company to watch in the prediction markets regulatory battle.
“I think it's inevitable we'll see this in the Supreme Court before long.”Laura Shin · 19 Aug 2026
Lisa Cook (Fed Governor): a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's ability to fire her could immediately trigger Powell's removal, making her case a key watch point for Fed independence.
“If the Supreme Court gives President Trump an opening to fire Lisa Cook, he'll probably fire J. Powell that same day.”Jim Bianco · 1 May 2026
Tyler Cowen on the legal fragility of Trump's sweeping tariff authority.
“The idea that you can just put a tariff on Canada and chocolate from Madagascar because Trump said so, I do think that's likely to go away, and soon.”Tyler Cowen · 23 Dec 2025