What is UAE?

Karen Young on the scale limits of US shale as a replacement for combined Saudi and UAE supply.

“Losing Iran completely manageable. Losing Saudi, UAE, not US shale would not be sufficient to do that.”

Iranian drones in early attack waves cost ~$35,000 each; the US-supplied missiles used to shoot them down cost $1-3 million each.

“The drones that came over in the first four weeks, those waves every morning were basically carbon fiber wings with lawnmower engines on them and very inexpensive to make about $35,000. and we shot them down or at least the UAE did with American ordinance between a million2 and $3 million per missile on a $35,000 homemade drone.”

The Taweelah aluminum plant in the UAE faces up to one year of reduced or zero output after a power outage solidified aluminum in its pots.

“We can expect is running at reduced capacity or zero, you know, for a year until that those repairs can be made.”

The mediators pushing the US and Iran back to the negotiating table are Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt, not the Gulf states most exposed to Iranian pressure (UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain).

“If you look at who is calling the United States and the Iranian side to encourage them to get back to the negotiating table, it's Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt. It is not the UAE, Kuwait, or Bahrain.”

LNG trade capacity under construction points to an approximately 50% increase in global LNG trade, but new supply will not replace disrupted Qatari and Emirati volumes in the near term.

“We are going to have an increase about 50% in terms of LG trade.”

Bremmer explains the post-Iran-war Gulf realignment as a structural bifurcation: UAE anchoring to Israel, while Saudi Arabia gravitates toward Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, deepening a long-run rift between the two Gulf powers.

“Saudis, that's a very different story. It's Pakistan. It's Egypt. It's Turkey. I think that becomes bigger not smaller after this war is over or as it comes to a pause.”

In the first five months of 2025, the US secured separate trillion-dollar investment commitments from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.

“If you would have told me that in the first 5 months of this year, we would have gotten a trillion dollar deal signed with Saudi in terms of their investment in the United States, another trillion dollars with Qatar, another trillion dollars with the UAE.”

The UAE's use of dark-transit LNG cargo movements at the start of the conflict, in contrast to Qatar's inaction, illustrates how smaller Gulf producers tested risk tolerance while the dominant LNG supplier stayed cautious.

“The UAE at the beginning had only one single LNG cargo inside the Gulf, but very surprisingly they actually moved cargoes in and out. All of them were going dark, but that was really surprising. This is not something that Qatar did.”

Ian Bremmer on UAE-Israel alignment after the Iran war.

“I think that the Emiratis and the Saudis will have a much more structural fight. The Emiratis will tell you that, you know, in a time of war this is when you really know who your friends are. Number one for them in this environment has been Israel. Like, you know, in the region in the region.”

The global LNG pool has shrunk by approximately one-fifth due to the disruption of Qatari and Emirati exports.

“The pool of LNG has been really been shrinking by about 1/5.”