What is US Treasury?

The US Treasury is the federal department responsible for managing government finances, including issuing debt. The material tracks concerns about a self-reinforcing cycle of debt issuance and its impact on long-term bond yields, as well as the Treasury’s relationship with the Federal Reserve.

• May 2026 - Ben Carlson noted that iShares 20+ year Treasury bonds had a negative return over the past 11 years.
• Jun 2026 - Bob Sheehan described a loop where the Treasury issues more debt to fix problems, which then requires further issuance, putting pressure on long-end supply.
• Jun 2026 - Luke Gromen said the Fed will effectively become more married with the Treasury, losing independence.